In smaller pools under 20 entries, you can be more conservative. The level of risk you want to take is also dependent on pool size. That means generally picking the bigger favorites early, but looking for some value opportunities to pick a few value upsets where the underdog has decent win odds and low popularity. There are 13 playoff games that will decide the outcome in regular season weekly contests, there are usually between 14-16 games that determine the winner. If you are starting fresh in a playoff pool, you also need to find value picks, and treat the playoff pool very much like a one-week regular season NFL pick’em contest. If You Are Starting Fresh in a New Playoff Pool The level of risk you take will depend on the amount of ground you need to make up to get into a prize position, and how many entries you have to pass. Your goal is to make different picks than the players ahead of you in the standings, without taking on too much additional risk. If you’re currently out of the money and trying to catch up, your strategy is basically the opposite of the above strategy for protecting a lead. If You Are Trailing in Your Pool Entering the Playoffs We assume that in most cases you won’t know who your opponents are picking in these near toss-up games, and so instead you need to rely on the public pick data to make a guess. If for whatever reason you know they are both going to pick a small underdog to pull off an upset - maybe they’re both from New England and will be backing the Patriots - then you should make that same pick too. One other note here - if you are winning a pool and only two (or three, or some other small number) of your opponents have a legitimate chance of catching you and knocking you out of prize contention, those are the only two opponents you care about. That way, regardless of what happens in the game, the majority of your opponents won’t have a chance to gain ground on you. In these close games, if the underdog is being picked by your opponents at a decently higher rate than the favorite, the best strategy (again, when defending a lead) is to pick that popular underdog. The difference in expected points between picking a 52% favorite and a 48% dog is minimal. However, when games are close to 50/50 tossups, strategy changes. Keep the odds in your favor and force your opponents to pick the riskier teams if they want to have a chance to catch you. If you’re defending a prize position in your pool, in general the best approach will be to remain conservative in the playoffs and pick the favorites to win. If You Are Leading Your Pool Entering the Playoffs That’s basically the equivalent of one more NFL Week of games. With only 13 games left to play in the season, there are a limited number of opportunities left to move up or down in the standings. If you’re in a traditional pick’em pool that continues into the playoffs, your strategy depends on your current position in the pool and your goals. Only a few games each week, allowing quicker strategy adjustmentĪs a result, Playoff pools are a lot more like weekly contests, where you have to take more risks to differentiate your entry quickly.Playoff pools can differ quite a bit from season-long pools. How NFL Playoffs Pick’em Pools Differ From the Regular SeasonĪt PoolGenius, we have given advice to thousands of subscribers over the years, and have generated excellent returns in winning NFL Pick’em Pools, including Game Winner, Confidence Point Pools, and Spread Pools. If you want to see our specific advice for this year’s playoffs, check out our 2022-23 NFL Playoffs Pick’em Pool Picks Strategy, News, and Analysis article, which will update throughout the playoffs as we progress through each round. This article will go over general strategy principles and things to consider when playing in an NFL playoff pool. Welcome to our NFL Playoffs Pick’em Pool Strategy Guide, where we specifically provide advice and insights on how to win contests that involve picking the NFL playoff games. To win a playoff pool, you need both Griddy and gritty strategy (Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)
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